Learning out-of-sample Expected Shortfall and Conditional Tail Moments with neural networks. Application to cryptocurrency data - Archive ouverte HAL
Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2024

Learning out-of-sample Expected Shortfall and Conditional Tail Moments with neural networks. Application to cryptocurrency data

Résumé

We propose new parameterizations for neural networks in order to estimate out-of-sample Expected Shortfall, and even more generally, out-of-sample conditional tail moments, in heavy-tailed settings as functions of confidence levels. The proposed neural network estimator is able to extrapolate in the distribution tails thanks to an extension of the usual extreme-value second-order condition to an arbitrary order. The convergence rate of the uniform error between the log-conditional tail moment and its neural network approximation is established. The finite sample performance of the neural network estimator is compared to bias-reduced extreme-value competitors on simulated data. It is shown that our method outperforms them in difficult heavy-tailed situations where other estimators almost all fail. Finally, the neural network estimator is tested on real data to investigate the behavior of cryptocurrency extreme loss returns.
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hal-04571966 , version 1 (09-05-2024)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04571966 , version 1

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Michaël Allouche, Stéphane Girard, Emmanuel Gobet. Learning out-of-sample Expected Shortfall and Conditional Tail Moments with neural networks. Application to cryptocurrency data. SNSL 2024 - Stochastic Numerics and Statistical Learning: Theory and Applications Workshop, KAUST, May 2024, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia. ⟨hal-04571966⟩
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