Proper account of long-term correlations in the observations improves state-space models' performances
Résumé
State-space models are widely used in ecology to infer hidden behaviors. This study develops an extensive
numerical simulation-estimation experiment to evaluate the state decoding accuracy of four simple
state-space models. These models are obtained by combining different Markovian specifications (Markov
and semi-Markov) for the hidden layer with the absence and presence of auto-correlation for the observation
layer. Model parameters are issued from two sets of real annotated trajectories. Three metrics are
developed to help interpret model performance. The first is the Hellinger distance between Markov and
semi-Markov sojourn time probability distributions. The second is sensitive to the overlap between the
probability density functions of state-dependent variables (e.g., speed variables). The third quantifies the
deterioration of the inference conditions between AR0 and AR1 formulations. It emerges that the most sensitive
model choice concerns the auto-correlation of the random processes describing the state-dependent
variables. Opting for the absence of auto-correlation in the model while the state-dependent variables are actually
auto-correlated, is detrimental to state decoding performance. Regarding the hidden layer, imposing a
Markov structure while the state process is semi-Markov does not impair the state decoding performances.
The real-life estimates are consistent with our experimental finding that performance deteriorates when
there are significant temporal correlations that are not accounted for in the model. In light of these findings,
we recommend that researchers carefully consider the structure of the statistical model they suggest and
confirm its alignment with the process being modeled, especially when considering the auto-correlation of
observed variables.
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