Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Geophysical Research Letters Année : 2024

Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble

Sophie Bastin
Susanne Brienen
Hendrik Feldmann
Thomas Frisius
Pedro M M Soares

Résumé

Taking advantage of a large ensemble of Convection Permitting‐Regional Climate Models on a pan‐Alpine domain and of an object‐oriented dedicated analysis, this study aims to investigate future changes in high‐impact fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels. We identify a robust multi‐model agreement for an increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined with a substantial extension of the affected areas, for a dominant influence of the driving Global Climate Models for projecting changes in the frequency, and for an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the French Mediterranean. However, large quantitative uncertainties persist despite the use of convection‐permitting models, with no clear agreement in frequency changes over southeastern France and a large range of plausible changes in events' properties, including for the most intense events. Model diversity and international coordination are still needed to provide policy‐relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes.
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Origine : Publication financée par une institution
Licence : CC BY NC ND - Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification

Dates et versions

hal-04524362 , version 1 (28-03-2024)

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Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification

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Cécile Caillaud, Samuel Somot, Hervé Douville, Antoinette Alias, Sophie Bastin, et al.. Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, 51 (6), pp.e2023GL105143. ⟨10.1029/2023gl105143⟩. ⟨hal-04524362⟩
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