Flow intermittence prediction using a hybrid hydrological modelling approach: influence of observed intermittence data on the training of a random forest model
Résumé
Abstract. Rivers are rich in biodiversity and act as ecological corridors for plant and animal species. With climate change and increasing anthropogenic water demand, more frequent and prolonged periods of drying in river systems are expected, endangering biodiversity and river ecosystems. However, understanding and predicting the hydrological mechanisms that control periodic drying and rewetting in rivers is challenging due to a lack of studies and hydrological observations, particularly in non-perennial rivers. Within the framework of the Horizon 2020 DRYvER (Drying River Networks and Climate Change) project, a hydrological modelling study of flow intermittence in rivers is being carried out in three European catchments (Spain, Finland, France) characterised by different climate, geology, and anthropogenic use. The objective of this study is to represent the spatio-temporal dynamics of flow intermittence at the reach level in mesoscale river networks (between 120 and 350 km2). The daily and spatially distributed flow condition (flowing or dry) is predicted using the J2000 distributed hydrological model coupled with a random forest classification model. Observed flow condition data from different sources (water level measurements, photo traps, citizen science applications) are used to build the predictive model. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the observed flow condition dataset (sample size, spatial and temporal representativity) on the performance of the predictive model. Results show that the hybrid modelling approach developed in this study allows the spatio-temporal patterns of drying to be accurately predicted in the three catchments, with a sensitivity criterion above 0.9 for the prediction of dry events in the Finnish and French case studies and 0.65 in the Spanish case study. This study shows the value of combining different data sources of observed flow condition to reduce the uncertainty in predicting flow intermittence.
Domaines
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Cite 10.57745/13Q77Z Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Flow intermittence indicators from the reconstruction simulations (1960-2021) in the Bükkösdi DRN (Hungary)", https://doi.org/10.57745/13Q77Z, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/1XGAMX Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological reconstruction (1960-2021) of the Butiznica DRN (Croatia)", https://doi.org/10.57745/1XGAMX, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/4ETHSY Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Flow intermittence indicators from the reconstruction simulations (1960-2021) in the Velicka DRN (Czechia)", https://doi.org/10.57745/4ETHSY, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/5JDNWF Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Simulated hydrological variables and flow intermittence indicators for the projection period (1985-2100) for the 6 European catchments studied in the DRYvER project", https://doi.org/10.57745/5JDNWF, Recherche Data Gouv, V1
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Cite 10.57745/6PUUVC Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Flow intermittence indicators from the projection simulations (1985-2100) in the Velicka DRN (Czechia)", https://doi.org/10.57745/6PUUVC, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/9RP7MU Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Flow intermittence indicators from the reconstruction simulations (1960-2021) in the Genal DRN (Spain)", https://doi.org/10.57745/9RP7MU, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/BLASN0 Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological projections (1985-2100) of the Lepsämänjoki DRN (Finland)", https://doi.org/10.57745/BLASN0, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/BLQKZW Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological projections (1985-2100) of the Bükkösdi DRN (Hungary)", https://doi.org/10.57745/BLQKZW, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/BUPQQF Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological projections (1985-2100) of the Butiznica DRN (Croatia)", https://doi.org/10.57745/BUPQQF, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/BV1AJA Donnée de simulation Mimeau, Louise; Branger, Flora; Künne, Annika; Kralisch, Sven, 2025, "J2000 Hydrological model of the Fekete-Bukkosdi river basin (Hungary)", https://doi.org/10.57745/BV1AJA, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/CCZTOD Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Flow intermittence indicators from the projection simulations (1985-2100) in the Lepsämänjoki DRN (Finland)", https://doi.org/10.57745/CCZTOD, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/CDIMJH Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Flow intermittence indicators from the projection simulations (1985-2100) in the Butiznica DRN (Croatia)", https://doi.org/10.57745/CDIMJH, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/EJG7KJ Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological reconstruction (1960-2021) of the Lepsämänjoki DRN (Finland)", https://doi.org/10.57745/EJG7KJ, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/II6DMA Donnée de simulation Mimeau, Louise; Branger, Flora; Künne, Annika; Kralisch, Sven, 2025, "J2000 Hydrological model of the Ain-Albarine river basin (France)", https://doi.org/10.57745/II6DMA, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/JDQ4KO Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Simulated hydrological variables and flow intermittence indicators for the reconstruction period (1960-2021) for the 6 European catchments studied in the DRYvER project", https://doi.org/10.57745/JDQ4KO, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/JI6ZPI Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Flow intermittence indicators from the projection simulations (1985-2100) in the Genal DRN (Spain)", https://doi.org/10.57745/JI6ZPI, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/LCT9L6 Donnée de simulation Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological and flow intermittence models for the 6 European catchments studied in the DRYvER project", https://doi.org/10.57745/LCT9L6, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/MHTN16 Donnée de simulation Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Random forest models for predicting the flow intermittence in the 6 European Drying River Networks", https://doi.org/10.57745/MHTN16, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/NAHT7K Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Flow intermittence indicators from the reconstruction simulations (1960-2021) in the Albarine DRN (France)", https://doi.org/10.57745/NAHT7K, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/NMR6AX Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological projections (1985-2100) of the Velicka DRN (Czechia)", https://doi.org/10.57745/NMR6AX, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/OJ2GO2 Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological projections (1985-2100) of the Albarine DRN (France)", https://doi.org/10.57745/OJ2GO2, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/QFNFPN Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological reconstruction (1960-2021) of the Velicka DRN (Czechia)", https://doi.org/10.57745/QFNFPN, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/QPF3CO Donnée de simulation Mimeau, Louise; Branger, Flora; Künne, Annika; Kralisch, Sven, 2025, "J2000 Hydrological model of the Vantaanjoki-Lepsämänjoki river basin (Finland)", https://doi.org/10.57745/QPF3CO, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/SLQKXX Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological reconstruction (1960-2021) of the Bükkösdi DRN (Hungary)", https://doi.org/10.57745/SLQKXX, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/U0KJL3 Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven, 2025, "Geographical information for the European Drying River Networks", https://doi.org/10.57745/U0KJL3, Recherche Data Gouv, V2, UNF:6:v+FbVvjXBJnRcV/LCX55LQ== [fileUNF]
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Cite 10.57745/U6UZJP Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological projections (1985-2100) of the Genal DRN (Spain)", https://doi.org/10.57745/U6UZJP, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/UDNZG1 Texte Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Böhm, Bettina; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Datry, Thibault; Csabai, Zoltán; Polović, Luka; Bonada, Núria; Mykrä, Heikki; Pařil, Petr, 2025, "Key messages on flow intermittence projections in the 6 studied European river networks", https://doi.org/10.57745/UDNZG1, Recherche Data Gouv, V1
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Cite 10.57745/VA4YI0 Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Flow intermittence indicators from the projection simulations (1985-2100) in the Albarine DRN (France)", https://doi.org/10.57745/VA4YI0, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/VIPKDP Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Datry, Thibault; Csabai, Zoltán; Polović, Luka; Bonada, Núria; Mykrä, Heikki; Pařil, Petr, 2025, "Flow intermittence observations collected in the European Drying River Networks", https://doi.org/10.57745/VIPKDP, Recherche Data Gouv, V2, UNF:6:xO8fprEsOdUj+EIRl6nsCw== [fileUNF]
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Cite 10.57745/VTRRQL Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological reconstruction (1960-2021) of the Albarine DRN (France)", https://doi.org/10.57745/VTRRQL, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/VXBMAF Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Hydrological reconstruction (1960-2021) of the Genal DRN (Spain)", https://doi.org/10.57745/VXBMAF, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/XGDGRR Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Flow intermittence indicators from the reconstruction simulations (1960-2021) in the Lepsämänjoki DRN (Finland)", https://doi.org/10.57745/XGDGRR, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/ZYZAEV Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Flow intermittence indicators from the reconstruction simulations (1960-2021) in the Butiznica DRN (Croatia)", https://doi.org/10.57745/ZYZAEV, Recherche Data Gouv, V2
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Cite 10.57745/ZZGICL Jeu de données Mimeau, Louise; Künne, Annika; Devers, Alexandre; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven; Lauvernet, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2025, "Flow intermittence indicators from the projection simulations (1985-2100) in the Bükkösdi DRN (Hungary)", https://doi.org/10.57745/ZZGICL, Recherche Data Gouv, V2