Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of seismic fragility curves using kriging - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification Année : 2024

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of seismic fragility curves using kriging

Résumé

Seismic fragility curves have been introduced as key components of seismic probabilistic risk assessment studies. They express the probability of failure of mechanical structures conditional to a seismic intensity measure and must take into account various sources of uncertainties, the so-called epistemic uncertainties (i.e., coming from the uncertainty on the mechanical parameters of the structure) and the aleatory uncertainties (i.e., coming from the randomness of the seismic ground motions). For simulation-based approaches we propose a methodology to build and calibrate a Gaussian process surrogate model to estimate a family of nonparametric seismic fragility curves for a mechanical structure by propagating both the surrogate model uncertainty and the epistemic ones. Gaussian processes have indeed the main advantage to propose both a predictor and an assessment of the uncertainty of its predictions. In addition, we extend this methodology to sensitivity analysis. Global sensitivity indices such as aggregated Sobol' indices and kernel-based indices are proposed to know how the uncertainty on the seismic fragility curves is apportioned according to each uncertain mechanical parameter. This comprehensive uncertainty quantification framework is finally applied to an industrial test case consisting of a part of a piping system of a pressurized water reactor.
Fichier sous embargo
Fichier sous embargo
0 1 20
Année Mois Jours
Avant la publication
jeudi 27 février 2025
Fichier sous embargo
jeudi 27 février 2025
Connectez-vous pour demander l'accès au fichier

Dates et versions

hal-04479283 , version 1 (27-02-2024)

Identifiants

Citer

Clement Gauchy, Cyril Feau, Josselin Garnier. Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of seismic fragility curves using kriging. International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification, 2024, 4 (4), ⟨10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2023046480⟩. ⟨hal-04479283⟩
32 Consultations
4 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More