Modelling CO2 dispersion in the air during potential limnic eruption at the lake Pavin (France) - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research Année : 2024

Modelling CO2 dispersion in the air during potential limnic eruption at the lake Pavin (France)

Résumé

Risk mitigation in long-dormant volcanic provinces is a challenge due to the absence of collective memory of past disasters as well as the scarcity, and subtlety, of unrest signals that can be monitored. In this study, the impact of a potential limnic eruption is assessed at the 92-m-deep lake Pavin (French Massif Central). The lake is hosted in a maar crater formed during the last eruptive event in metropolitan France (~7 ka) and contains dissolved CO2 in the deepest water layer, below 60 m. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions measured at the lake surface (0.44 km 2) reach up to 10.1 tons/day during the winter. Beyond this (limited) continuous degassing of the lake, the current CO2 budget in the monimolimnion layer (at a depth of 60 m to 92 m) was estimated at 1750 tons, of which about 450 tons are available for release in case of overturn of the lake. Scenarios for CO2 dispersion in the lower atmosphere were simulated with the DISGAS and TWODEE-2 models by varying (i) meteorological conditions, (ii) the amount of CO2 released, (iii) and the mechanisms of degassing during a potential limnic eruption. The simulations allowed identification and delimitation of areas potentially impacted by hazardous CO2 levels in the air down-valley from the lake and directly around the lake. The spatio-temporal evolution of the potential CO2 cloud raises issues regarding the impacts of such a hypothetical event in the close vicinity of the lake and, given the area is populated and highly visited, needs to be considered in future risk mitigation strategies.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Rafflinetal2024.pdf (16.37 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Publication financée par une institution
Licence : CC BY NC ND - Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification

Dates et versions

hal-04466178 , version 1 (19-02-2024)

Licence

Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification

Identifiants

Citer

Victoria Rafflin, Guillaume Boudoire, Silvia Massaro, Manuel Stocchi, Antonio Costa, et al.. Modelling CO2 dispersion in the air during potential limnic eruption at the lake Pavin (France). Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2024, 447, pp.108024. ⟨10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2024.108024⟩. ⟨hal-04466178⟩
40 Consultations
11 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More