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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2023

CRISTAL: A FRAMEWORK AND TOOLS FOR RESPONSIBLE DECISION-MAKING

Résumé

As avalanche triggering is impossible to predict fairly and accurately, risk assessment is still too much influenced by so-called "human factors". Such cognitive biases often prevent us from seeing obvious dangers. The CRISTAL approach aims at helping us make a conscious decision, from conception at home to technical choices on the field. Based on six observable and tangible criteria leading to four distinct vigilance modes, this iterative approach has four key steps: (i) the evaluation of the six criteria is factual, to avoid integrating any unexplained "feeling", and must also be independent of the group size and its expertise level; (ii) it leads to the determination of a minimal vigilance mode to be adopted on the field, which evolves along the route; (iii) the analysis completes the identification of the vigilance mode by also considering some human factors (experience, objective, group size, ...), as well as the topographical environment (terrain traps, ...). Such an analysis is in itself quite subjective because the resulting decision is bounded for each vigilance mode; (iv) the decision phase then ends the process... before it is restarted for the rest of the project. Developed and practiced for about two decades, this approach is now subject to research studies. A fuzzy rule-based system is being validated so that this transition from the six criteria to the adapted vigilance mode is no longer totally delegated to the user end.
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Dates et versions

hal-04458521 , version 1 (22-02-2024)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04458521 , version 1

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Frédéric Pourraz, Alain Duclos, Gregory Coubat. CRISTAL: A FRAMEWORK AND TOOLS FOR RESPONSIBLE DECISION-MAKING. ISSW - International Snow Science Workshop, Oct 2023, Bend, Oregon, United States. pp.373-379. ⟨hal-04458521⟩

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