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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2023

Multiple waves of COVID-19 in Rio de Janeiro

Résumé

The rapid global spread of the SARS-Cov- 2, responsible for the severe acute respiratory syndrome, raised significant alarm internationally due to the critical respiratory illness it caused, known as COVID-19. Focusing on Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the initial case was identified in March 2020. However, pinpointing the precise onset of local transmission is challenging. The Brazilian system for monitoring epidemics was initially ill-equipped to identify potential COVID-19 cases. As the pandemic progressed, enhancements were made to the surveillance system. Nevertheless, accurately identifying the exact start of new local transmission episodes remains a complex task due to the intricate nature of disease spread. This study developed a comprehensive method for estimating the onset of various local COVID-19 outbreaks. It employs a parametric statistical approach that integrates surveillance data, nonlinear regression, and information criteria, forming a statistical model to effectively depict the observed contagion waves. By examining the situation in Rio de Janeiro as a case study, the findings indicate that the original variant of the virus may have been present in the city as early as late February 2020. It likely spread widely among the populace during the carnival celebration.
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Dates et versions

hal-04373358 , version 1 (05-01-2024)

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Copyright (Tous droits réservés)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04373358 , version 1

Citer

Paulo Roberto de Lima Gianfelice, Ricardo Oyarzabal, Americo Cunha Jr, Jose Mario Vicensi Grzybowski, Fernando C Batista, et al.. Multiple waves of COVID-19 in Rio de Janeiro. International Symposium on Spreading Dynamics, Dec 2023, Shangai, China. ⟨hal-04373358⟩

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