Future scenarios for livestock agriculture in New Zealand: Exploring pathways and interventions for increasing the profitability, resilience, and sustainability by 2050
Résumé
Agriculture in New Zealand (NZ) faces disruptions from climate change, increasingly stringent environmental regulations, and emerging technologies. Given the importance of agriculture to the NZ economy, government and industry need to develop policies and strategies to respond to the risks and opportunities associated with these disruptors. Livestock production in NZ represents 64% of the agricultural export revenue and more than 85% of agricultural GHG emissions, mainly from methane and nitrous oxide (NZ Ministry for Primary Industries). There is a clear research gap in understanding how future disruptions from climate and technology could impact on the environment and productivity. To address this gap, we have developed and applied an assessment tool of NZ livestock farming systems to explore pathways and interventions for increasing agricultural resilience, sustainability, and profitability over the next 5-30 years.