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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2023

An algorithm to build synthetic temporal contact networks based on close-proximity interactions data

Résumé

Abstract Small populations (e.g., hospitals, schools or workplaces) are characterised by high contact heterogeneity and stochasticity affecting pathogen transmission dynamics. The increased availability of empirical individual contact data provides unprecedented information to characterize such heterogeneity. However, these detailed data are usually collected over a limited period, and can suffer from observation bias. We propose an algorithm to stochastically reconstruct realistic temporal networks from individual contact data in health care settings (HCS) and test this approach using real data previously collected in a long-term care facility (LTCF). Our algorithm generates full networks from recorded close-proximity interactions, using hourly inter-individual contact rates and information on individuals’ wards, the categories of staff involved in contacts, and the frequency of recurring contacts. It also provides data augmentation by reconstructing contacts for days when some individuals are present in the HCS without having contacts recorded in the empirical data. Recoding bias is formalized through an observation model, to allow direct comparison between the augmented and observed networks. The algorithm successfully reconstructed unobserved contacts, and was substantially more accurate to reproduce network characteristics than random graphs. The reconstructed networks reproduced well the assortativity by ward (first–third quartiles observed: 0.54–0.64; synthetic: 0.52–0.64) and the hourly staff and patient contact patterns. Importantly, the observed temporal correlation was also well reproduced (0.39–0.50 vs 0.37–0.44), indicating that our algorithm could recreate a realistic temporal structure. The daily degree (10.8–14.7 vs 14.7–18.0), density (0.07–0.08 vs 0.08–0.10) and global efficiency (0.39–0.43; 0.46–0.49) were slightly overestimated. To conclude, we propose an approach to generate realistic temporal contact networks and reconstruct unobserved contacts from summary statistics computed using individual-level interaction networks. This could be applied and extended to generate contact networks to other settings using limited empirical data, to subsequently inform individual-based epidemic models.
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Dates et versions

hal-04325711 , version 1 (12-12-2023)

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Paternité

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Audrey Duval, Quentin Leclerc, Didier Guillemot, Laura Temime, Lulla Opatowski. An algorithm to build synthetic temporal contact networks based on close-proximity interactions data. 2023. ⟨hal-04325711⟩
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