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Article Dans Une Revue Sustainability Année : 2022

Transformative Change Needs Direction

Sander Jacobs
Fernando Santos-Martín
  • Fonction : Auteur
Eeva Primmer
  • Fonction : Auteur
Fanny Boeraeve
  • Fonction : Auteur
Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez
Vânia Proença
Martin Schlaepfer
  • Fonction : Auteur
Lluis Brotons
Robert Dunford
  • Fonction : Auteur
Sandra Lavorel
Antoine Guisan
  • Fonction : Auteur
Zuzana Harmáčková
Inge Liekens
Jennifer Hauck
Kasper Kok
Yves Zinngrebe
  • Fonction : Auteur
Simona Pedde
  • Fonction : Auteur
Bálint Czúcz
  • Fonction : Auteur
Cosimo Solidoro
  • Fonction : Auteur
Matthew Cantele
  • Fonction : Auteur
Christian Rixen
  • Fonction : Auteur
Anna Heck
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jomme Desair
Tobias Plieninger
Paula Harrison

Résumé

Comparing the impacts of future scenarios is essential for developing and guiding the political sustainability agenda. This review-based analysis compares six IPBES scenarios for their impacts on 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 20 biodiversity targets (Aichi targets) for the Europe and Central Asia regions. The comparison is based on a review of 143 modeled scenarios synthesized in a plural cost–benefit approach which provides the distances to multiple policy goals. We confirm and substantiate the claim that transformative change is vital but also point out which directions for political transformation are to be preferred. The hopeful message is that large societal losses might still be avoided, and multiple benefits can be generated over the coming decades and centuries. Yet, policies will need to strongly steer away from scenarios based on regional competition, inequality, and economic optimism.

Dates et versions

hal-04296902 , version 1 (21-11-2023)

Identifiants

Citer

Sander Jacobs, Fernando Santos-Martín, Eeva Primmer, Fanny Boeraeve, Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez, et al.. Transformative Change Needs Direction. Sustainability, 2022, 14 (22), pp.14844. ⟨10.3390/su142214844⟩. ⟨hal-04296902⟩

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