Advanced Tools for Uncertainties Visualization and Analysis in Fuel Cycle Simulations
Résumé
Fuel cycle scenarios are "boundary objects" providing an opportunity to bring together different communities of stakeholders, with various knowledge and different, and sometimes opposing, interests in order to compare their visions for the future, organize their strategies and even cooperate. Uncertainties analysis is often difficult to discuss during this boundary interactions. A new method has been developed to calculate easily and represent uncertainties linked to our fuel cycle studies, representing the evolution of uncertainties with times and full distribution of outputs. The application of this method to a scenario closely inspired by the historical French fleet allows showing limited impact of uncertainties on global output like global plutonium inventory, but a significant one for inventories in specific stocks like UOX or MOX spent fuel stockpiles. Used as a support to the analysis of the impact of a new model for reactor evolution, the method confirms the significant of results from previous studies, notably those for the global plutonium inventory, the evaluation of the average value and the range of uncertainties are really similar for the two studied models. However, for the inventories in stocks, even when taken into account the large uncertainties associated, the differences appear to be significant.
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Licence : CC BY NC ND - Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification
Licence : CC BY NC ND - Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification