Assessing the Impact of Uncertainties on the Techno-Economic Performance of Microgrids - Archive ouverte HAL
Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2023

Assessing the Impact of Uncertainties on the Techno-Economic Performance of Microgrids

Résumé

This paper presents a framework for uncertainty management and treatment, an essential step toward achieving a robust microgrid design. The microgrid is first designed using a deterministic techno-economic optimization model. All uncertain inputs are identified and modeled properly (probabilistic framework for parameters and bootstrap for time series): this is called the Uncertainty Characterization step.An Uncertainty Analysis is then performed using Monte Carlo simulations to quantify the uncertainty impacts on the microgrid performance. Finally, a two-step Global Sensitivity Analysis is performed to identify and rank the uncertain factors that are mainly responsible for microgrid performance variations [1]. Morris’ method is used to discard unimportant factors with low computational cost. Sobol's variance-based method is applied to quantify the contribution of each uncertain input to the output variance.The case study results indicate that the proposed methodology provides a better understanding and handling of uncertainties during the microgrid design stage and acts as a decision-support tool when evaluating microgrids sizing decisions.
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Dates et versions

hal-04225363 , version 1 (02-10-2023)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-04225363 , version 1

Citer

Elsy El Sayegh, Pierre Haessig, Nabil Sadou, Julien Bruschi, Benoît Jacquet, et al.. Assessing the Impact of Uncertainties on the Techno-Economic Performance of Microgrids. 27th International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED), Jun 2023, Roma, Italia, Italy. Paper n° 10762. ⟨hal-04225363⟩
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