Pathogen threat increases electoral success for conservative parties: Results from a natural experiment with COVID-19 in France.
Résumé
Conservative ideology is closely linked with pathogen prevalence, and adherence to
conservative values increases under pathogen threat. To this day, few studies have
demonstrated this effect using ecological voter data. For the first time, we analyze
results from an election (the 2020 French local election) which was held during the
growing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread in the country. Using mixed
modeling on county-level data (N = 96), we show that perceived COVID-19 threat
(search volume indices) but not real threat (prevalence rates) prior to the election are
positively associated with an increase in conservative votes only. These results were
robust to adjustment on several covariates including abstention rates, prior electoral
scores for conservative parties, and economic characteristics. Overall, a 1% increase
in COVID-19 search volumes lead to an increase in conservative votes of .25%, 95%
CI [.08, .41]. These results highlight the relevance of evolutionary theory for
understanding real-life political behavior and indicate that the current COVID-19
pandemic could have a substantial impact on electoral outcomes.
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