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Article Dans Une Revue Global Biogeochemical Cycles Année : 2023

Magnitude, trends, and variability of the global ocean carbon sink from 1985‐2018

Tim Devries
Kana Yamamoto
Rik Wanninkhof
Nicolas Gruber
Judith Hauck
Jens Daniel Müller
Laurent Bopp
Dustin Carroll
Brendan Carter
Scott Doney
Lucas Gloege
Luke Gregor
Stephanie Henson
Ji Hyun Kim
  • Fonction : Auteur
Yosuke Iida
Tatiana Ilyina
Peter Landschützer
Corinne Le Quéré
David Munro
Cara Nissen
Lavinia Patara
Fiz Pérez
Laure Resplandy
Keith Rodgers
Jörg Schwinger
  • Fonction : Auteur
Roland Séférian
Valentina Sicardi
Jens Terhaar
Joaquin Triñanes
  • Fonction : Auteur
Hiroyuki Tsujino
Andrew Watson
Sayaka Yasunaka
Jiye Zeng

Résumé

Abstract This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985‐2018, using a combination of models and observation‐based products. The mean sea‐air CO 2 flux from 1985‐2018 is ‐1.6±0.2 PgC yr ‐1 based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO 2 (pCO 2 products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 , which is estimated at ‐2.1±0.3 PgC yr ‐1 by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and ‐2.4±0.1 PgC yr ‐1 by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65±0.3 PgC yr ‐1 of terrestrially‐derived CO 2 , but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001‐2018, the pCO 2 products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of ‐0.61±0.12 PgC yr ‐1 decade ‐1 , while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO 2 ‐driven trend of ‐0.34±0.06 and ‐0.41±0.03 PgC yr ‐1 decade ‐1 , respectively. This implies a climate‐forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate‐driven variability exceeding the CO 2 ‐forced variability by 2‐3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO 2 dominates the ocean CO 2 sink, while climate‐driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods.
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Dates et versions

hal-04205098 , version 1 (24-10-2023)

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Tim Devries, Kana Yamamoto, Rik Wanninkhof, Nicolas Gruber, Judith Hauck, et al.. Magnitude, trends, and variability of the global ocean carbon sink from 1985‐2018. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2023, 37 (10), pp.e2023GB007780. ⟨10.1029/2023GB007780⟩. ⟨hal-04205098⟩
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