Black pearl farming is the second source of French Polynesia income after tourism, and Gambier Islands are the main farming sites. Gambier main lagoon contains several sub-lagoons critical for pearl oyster rearing and spat collecting (SC). The Rikitea lagoon, traditionally had good SC rates in the warm season which ensured steady supplies of oysters for black pearl production. However, since 2018, SC has abruptly decreased. To assess the factors affecting SC, Gambier lagoon hydrodynamics was investigated in 2019–2020 to calibrate a hydrodynamic model and simulate larval dispersal around the SC areas. The model shows the strong wind influence on larval dispersal and accumulation patterns and suggests that windy months in the warm season as it can occur during La Niña episodes can explain recent poor SC. Larval dispersal scenarios also informed on best locations to perform adult oyster restocking, a practice that can also enhance SC on the long term.