Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty - Archive ouverte HAL
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2022

Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty

Laurent Ferrara
Aikaterina Karadimitropoulou
  • Fonction : Auteur
Athanasios Triantafyllou
  • Fonction : Auteur
Theodora Bermpei
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Exchange rates of commodity exporting countries, generally known as commodity currencies, are often considered to be driven by some specific commodity prices. In this paper, we show that the uncertainty common to a basket of commodity prices is also a significant driver of exchange rate dynamics for a panel of commodity exporting countries. In particular, a positive shock on global commodity price uncertainty leads to a short-run depreciation of the effective exchange rate in commodity currency countries, followed by a medium-term overshooting. We document that this pattern is specific to commodity currencies and is not visible on benchmark currencies like the euro or the U.S. dollar, the latter acting as a typical safe haven currency. We refer to this pattern as the “commodity uncertainty currency” property.
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Dates et versions

hal-04159791 , version 1 (12-07-2023)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-04159791 , version 1

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Laurent Ferrara, Aikaterina Karadimitropoulou, Athanasios Triantafyllou, Theodora Bermpei. Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty. 2022. ⟨hal-04159791⟩
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