Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2022

Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections

Julian Hinz
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1267438

Résumé

Sanctions are meant to coerce political adversaries through economic measures. However, evidence for their effectiveness is scarce. In this paper we assess the impact of sanctions on a democracy-France-by studying the electoral consequences of the sanctions and countersanctions imposed between Russia and Western countries. Contrary to most of the existing literature we find clear evidence for exposure to the sanctions to cause an increase in the vote share for pro-Russian (and far-right) candidates during the French 2017 presidential election. Locally, the impact on voting is substantial. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that about 16,300 votes for the main far-right candidate can be directly attributed to the sanctions' impact. This is the total number of votes cast in a medium-sized French city. It is however not nearly enough to have affected the outcome of the election at the national level.

Mots clés

Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
blowbacknov2022.pdf (3.14 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Dates et versions

hal-04150484 , version 1 (04-07-2023)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-04150484 , version 1

Citer

Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz. Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections. 2023. ⟨hal-04150484⟩
21 Consultations
26 Téléchargements

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More