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Article Dans Une Revue Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Année : 2023

Estimating methane emissions in the Arctic nations using surface observations from 2008 to 2019

Rona L Thompson
Espen Sollum
Mikhail Arshinov

Résumé

The Arctic is a critical region in terms of global warming. Environmental changes are already progressing steadily in high northern latitudes, whereby, among other effects, a high potential for enhanced methane (CH 4) emissions is induced. With CH 4 being a potent greenhouse gas, additional emissions from Arctic regions may intensify global warming in the future through positive feedback. Various natural and anthropogenic sources are currently contributing to the Arctic's CH 4 budget; however, the quantification of those emissions remains challenging. Assessing the amount of CH 4 emissions in the Arctic and their contribution to the global budget still remains challenging. On the one hand, this is due to the difficulties in carrying out accurate measurements in such remote areas. Besides, large variations in the spatial distribution of methane sources and a poor understanding of the effects of ongoing changes in carbon decomposition, vegetation and hydrology also complicate the assessment. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce uncertainties in current bottom-up estimates of CH 4 emissions as well as soil oxidation by implementing an inverse modelling approach in order to better quantify CH 4 sources and sinks for the most recent years (2008 to 2019). More precisely, the objective is to detect occurring trends in the CH 4 emissions and potential changes in seasonal emission patterns. The implementation of the inversion included footprint simulations obtained with the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model), various emission estimates from inventories and land surface models, and data on atmospheric CH 4 concentrations from 41 surface observation sites in the Arctic nations. The results of the inversion showed that the majority of the CH 4 sources currently present in high northern latitudes are poorly constrained by the existing observation network. Therefore, conclusions on trends and changes in the seasonal cycle could not be obtained for the corresponding CH 4 sectors. Only CH 4 fluxes from wetlands are adequately constrained, predominantly in North America. Within the period under study, wetland emissions show a slight negative trend in North America and a slight positive trend in East Eurasia. Overall, the estimated CH 4 emissions are lower compared to the bottom-up estimates but higher than similar results from global inversions.
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Dates et versions

hal-04134496 , version 1 (20-06-2023)

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Sophie Wittig, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Marielle Saunois, Joël Thanwerdas, et al.. Estimating methane emissions in the Arctic nations using surface observations from 2008 to 2019. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2023, 23, pp.6457 - 6485. ⟨10.5194/acp-23-6457-2023⟩. ⟨hal-04134496⟩
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