Recurrence time of large earthquakes at the western Alps-Mediteranean sea junction : from geological observations and modelling of the seismicity rate
Résumé
The junction between the Western Alps and the Ligurian basin in the Mediterranean Sea is one of the intraplate areas of Western Europe where strong earthquakes occur. The last of these earthquakes occurred in 1887 activating the Ligurian thrust, the major structure which has controlled most of the deformation in the area for about 5 Ma. The available data (GNSS, geological, seismological) allow us to hypothesize the recurrence time of M w 6.8 earthquake, equivalent to the 1887 earthquake, and lead to a range of 6500-3000 years.
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