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Article Dans Une Revue Science Advances Année : 2023

Terrestrial amplification of past, present, and future climate change

Résumé

Terrestrial amplification (TA) of land warming relative to oceans is apparent in recent climatic observations. TA results from land-sea coupling of moisture and heat and is therefore important for predicting future warming and water availability. However, the theoretical basis for TA has never been tested outside the short instrumental period, and the spatial pattern and amplitude of TA remain uncertain. Here, we investigate TA during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~20 thousand years) in the low latitudes, where the theory is most applicable. We find remarkable consistency between paleotemperature proxies, theory, and climate model simulations of both LGM and future climates. Paleoclimate data thus provide crucial new support for TA, refining the range of future lowlatitude, low-elevation TA to 1:37 þ0:27 À 0:23 (95% confidence interval), i.e., land warming ~40% more than oceans. The observed data model theory agreement helps reconcile LGM marine and terrestrial paleotemperature proxies, with implications for equilibrium climate sensitivity.
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Dates et versions

hal-03993339 , version 1 (16-02-2023)

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Alan Seltzer, Pierre-Henri Blard, Steven Sherwood, Masa Kageyama. Terrestrial amplification of past, present, and future climate change. Science Advances , 2023, 9 (6), ⟨10.1126/sciadv.adf8119⟩. ⟨hal-03993339⟩
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