An Analysis of the Economic Cycles of the English Speaking Caribbean Countries
Résumé
For decades, the problem of dating the business cycle presented a major concern for businessmen and policy makers. Despite the development of many statistical methodologies dedicated to the detection of turning points in the cycle, only a few countries compile and publish an official chronology of the economic cycle. This paper proposes a study of business cycles in the Caribbean basin by considering the cases of Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, the only countries in this geographical area for which databases with sufficient high frequency are available over long periods. First, common methods are used to identify and develop a description of the main empirical features of the turning points of the business cycle and the growth cycle. Second, the focus is on comparing the phases of the cycles obtained for these three countries and to examine their synchronization with other countries.