Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasting Using Machine Learning, Metaheuristic Models and Numerical Weather Predictions
Résumé
Solar-power-generation forecasting tools are essential for
microgrid stability, operation, and planning. The prediction of
solar irradiance (SI) usually relies on the time series of SI and
other meteorological data. In this study, the considered microgrid
was a combined cold- and power-generation system, located in
Tahiti. Point forecasts were obtained using a particle swarm
optimization (PSO) algorithm combined with three stand-alone
models: XGboost (PSO-XGboost), the long short-term memory neural
network (PSO-LSTM), and the gradient boosting regression algorithm
(PSO-GBRT). The implemented daily SI forecasts relied on an hourly
time-step. The input data were composed of outputs from the
numerical forecasting model AROME (Météo France) combined with
historical meteorological data. Our three hybrid models were
compared with other stand-alone models, namely, artificial neural
network (ANN), convolutional neural network (CNN), random forest
(RF), LSTM, GBRT, and XGboost. The probabilistic forecasts were
obtained by mapping the quantiles of the hourly residuals, which
enabled the computation of 38%, 68%, 95%, and 99% prediction
intervals (PIs). The experimental results showed that PSO-LSTM had
the best accuracy for day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting
compared with the other benchmark models, through overall
deterministic and probabilistic metrics.