The short-run, dynamic employment effects of natural disasters: New insights from Puerto Rico
Résumé
We study the short-run, dynamic employment effects of natural disasters. We exploit monthly data for 70 3-
digits NAICS industries and 78 Puerto Rican counties over the period 1995–2019. Our exogenous measure of
exposure to natural disasters is computed using the maximum wind speed recorded in each county during each
hurricane. Using panel local projections, we find that after the ‘‘average’’ hurricane, employment falls by 0.5%
on average. Across industries, we find substantial heterogeneity in the employment responses. Employment
increases in some industries while in others employment decreases after a hurricane. This heterogeneity can
be partly explained by input–output linkages.