Including individual Customer Lifetime Value and competing risks in tree-based lapse management strategies
Résumé
A retention strategy based on an enlightened lapse model is a powerful profitability
lever for a life insurer. Some machine learning models are excellent at predicting lapse,
but from the insurer’s perspective, predicting which policyholder is likely to lapse is not
enough to design a retention strategy. In our paper, we define a lapse management
framework with an appropriate validation metric based on Customer Lifetime Value and
profitability.
We include the risk of death in the study through competing risks considerations in
parametric and tree-based models and show that further individualization of the
existing approaches leads to increased performance. We show that survival tree-based
models outperform parametric approaches and that the actuarial literature can
significantly benefit from them. Then, we compare, on real data, how this framework
leads to increased predicted gains for a life insurer and discuss the benefits of our
model in terms of commercial and strategic decision-making.
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