Change-level detection for Lévy subordinators
Résumé
Let X = (Xt)t≥0 be a process behaving as a general increasing Lévy
process (subordinator) prior to hitting a given unknown level m0,
then behaving as another different subordinator once this threshold
is crossed. This paper addresses the detection of this unknown
threshold m0 ∈ [0, +∞] from an observed trajectory of the process.
These kind of model and issue are encountered in many areas such as
reliability and quality control in degradation problems. More
precisely, we construct, from a sample path and for each ε > 0,
a so-called detection level Lε by considering a CUSUM inspired
procedure. Under mild assumptions, this level is such that, while
m0 is infinite (i.e. when no changes occur), its expectation E∞(Lε)
tends to +∞ as ε tends to 0, and the expected overshoot Em0 ([Lε −
m0]+), while the threshold m0 is finite, is negligible compared to
E∞(Lε) as ε tends to 0. Numerical illustrations are provided when
the L ́evy processes are gamma processes with different shape
parameters.
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