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Article Dans Une Revue Journal of General Internal Medicine Année : 2021

Is Curfew Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Progression? An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses

Résumé

Background: Since late summer 2020, the French authorities implemented a curfew/lightened lockdown-alternating strategy instead of strict lockdown, to improve acceptability and limit socioeconomic consequences. However, data on curfew-related efficacy to control the epidemic are scarce. Objective: To investigate the effects on COVID-19 spread in France of curfew combined to local and/or nationwide restrictions from late summer 2020 to mid-February 2021. Design: We conducted a comparative evaluation using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)-based model completed with epidemiokinetic tools. Main measures: We analyzed the time-course of epidemic progression rate under curfew in French Guyana and five metropolitan regions where additional restrictions were implemented at different times. Using linear regressions of the decay/increase rates in daily contaminations, we calculated the epidemic regression half-lives (t1/2β) for each identified period. Key results: In French Guyana, two decay periods with rapid regression (t1/2β of ~10 days) were observed under curfew, with slowing (t1/2β of ~43 days) when curfew was lightened. During the 2-week pre-lockdown curfew (2020/10/17-2020/11/02) in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and Ile-de-France, the epidemic progression was unchanged. During the post-lockdown curfew (2020/12/15-2020/02/14), the epidemic slowly regressed in Grand-Est (t1/2β of ~37 days), whereas its progression rate plateaued in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and increased immediately in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur, Ile-de-France, and Nouvelle-Aquitaine, whatever the curfew starting time was (06:00 or 08:00 pm). Interestingly, a delayed slow decay (17 days < t1/2β < 64 days) occurred under curfew in all regions except Ile-de-France. Conclusions: Curfew allowed the temporary control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, however variably in the French regions, without preventing lockdown necessity. To accelerate the epidemic regression such as observed in French Guyana, curfew should be implemented timely with additional restrictions.

Dates et versions

hal-03858365 , version 1 (17-11-2022)

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Citer

Bruno Mégarbane, Fanchon Bourasset, Jean-Michel Scherrmann. Is Curfew Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Progression? An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses. Journal of General Internal Medicine, 2021, 36 (9), pp.2731-2738. ⟨10.1007/s11606-021-06953-9⟩. ⟨hal-03858365⟩
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