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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2013

High resolution atmospheric and oceanic modelling: impacts of Hurricane Dean over the Guadeloupe archipelago

Résumé

For two years, the atmospheric model WRF ARW V3 has been used to modelling meteorological variables fields observed over the Guadeloupe archipelago at high resolution scale (1 km). The model error estimators show that these meteorological variables seem to be properly simulated for standard types of weather : the undisturbed trade winds, the strong trade winds or the weak trade winds.In this presentation, we will apply this high resolution model configuration to an extreme type of weather : tropical hurricane. While hurricane Dean crossed the Lesser Antilles arc on the night of 16-17 August 2007, it caused floodings, storm surge, sustainable strong winds, but mainly cyclonic swell. Such conditions of rainfall, surge and swell had not been observed in the Lesser Antilles since 1989 and 1966, respectively for hurricane Hugo and Inez. Benjamin Arndt, 2010 analysed, in terms of risks, the impact of hurricane Dean on the Guadeloupe archipelago. Other authors focused on its storm surges along coasts of Guadeloupe (Zahibo et al.), or the influence of Dominica's topography on its rainfalls (Smith et al.). However, there is few 1 km scale numerical studies dealing with the atmospheric and oceanic impacts of hurricanes over small islands. We choosed to study Dean's ones over the Guadeloupe archipelago. The output variables of the atmospheric model WRF (U10m, V10m, Psea) are used as input of the coastal propagation wave model SWAN [SWAN]. The effect of the hurricane waves are evaluating on the most exposed coastal area during the event : the South East coast of the archipelago. The study is completed by the propagation of the surge in order to determine the area affected by the flooding. The atmospheric and oceanic fields simulated are evaluated by comparison with observed data of meteorological weather stations (Le Raizet, Desirade, ...) and the weather/wave buoys available in the area (NDBC/NOAA and French MetOffice). This first combination of these atmospheric and oceanic tools applied to the Guadeloupe archipelago under hurricane has for main goal the assistance of designing of prevention and evacuation plan, particularly at coastal areas. To be able to produce an useful information, we made the choice to present the data in form of map, with GIS methods on recent land plan. The risk area are defined and evaluated for the rainfall, wind speed, waves and flood hazard.
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Dates et versions

hal-03714172 , version 1 (05-07-2022)

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  • HAL Id : hal-03714172 , version 1

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Raphaël Cécé, Jean-François Dorville, Didier Clément Bernard. High resolution atmospheric and oceanic modelling: impacts of Hurricane Dean over the Guadeloupe archipelago. Caribbean Waves 2, Jan 2013, Gosier, Guadeloupe. ⟨hal-03714172⟩

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