Controversy over the decline of arthropods: a matter of temporal baseline? - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Peer Community Journal Année : 2022

Controversy over the decline of arthropods: a matter of temporal baseline?

Résumé

Recently, a number of studies have reported somewhat contradictory patterns of temporal trends in arthropod abundance, from decline to increase. Arthropods often exhibit non-monotonous variation in abundance over time, making it important to account for temporal coverage in interpretation of abundance trends, which is often overlooked in statistical analysis. Combining four recently analysed datasets that led to contrasting outcomes, we first show that temporal abundance variations of arthropods are non-monotonous. Using simulations, we show non-monotony is likely to bias estimated linear abundance trends. Finally, analysing empirical data, we show that heterogeneity in estimated abundance trends is significantly related to the variation in temporal baseline of analysed time series. Once differences in baseline years, habitats and continents are accounted for, we do not find any statistical difference in estimated linear abundance trends among the four datasets. We also show that short time series produce more stochastic abundance trends than long series, making the dearth of old and long-term time series a strong limitation in the assessment of temporal trends in arthropod abundance. The lack of time series with a baseline year before global change acceleration is likely to lead to an underestimation of global change effects on biodiversity.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Controversy over the decline of arthropods.pdf (943.3 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
R_script_baseline_project.pdf (444.05 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
baseline_supplementary.pdf (675.42 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Dates et versions

hal-03685658 , version 1 (02-06-2022)

Identifiants

Citer

François Duchenne, Emmanuelle Porcher, Jean- Baptiste Mihoub, Grégoire Loïs, Colin Fontaine. Controversy over the decline of arthropods: a matter of temporal baseline?. Peer Community Journal, 2022, ⟨10.1101/2022.02.09.479422⟩. ⟨hal-03685658⟩
47 Consultations
79 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More