Effect of Vaccination to COVID-19 Disease Progression and Herd Immunity
Résumé
Abstract A mathematical model of COVID-19 with a delay-term for the vaccinated compartment is developed. It has parameters accounting for vaccine-induced immunity delay, vaccine effectiveness, vaccination rate, and vaccine-induced immunity duration. The model parameters before vaccination are calibrated with the Philippines’ confirmed cases. Simulations show that vaccination has a significant effect in reducing future infections, with the vaccination rate being the dominant determining factor of the level of reduction. Moreover, depending on the vaccination rate and the vaccine-induced immunity duration, the system could reach a disease-free state but could not attain herd immunity. Simulations are also done to compare the effects of the various available vaccines. Results show that Pfizer-BioNTech has the most promising effect while Sinovac has the worst result relative to the others.
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