Effect of Vaccination to COVID-19 Disease Progression and Herd Immunity - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Computational and Mathematical Biophysics Année : 2021

Effect of Vaccination to COVID-19 Disease Progression and Herd Immunity

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Abstract A mathematical model of COVID-19 with a delay-term for the vaccinated compartment is developed. It has parameters accounting for vaccine-induced immunity delay, vaccine effectiveness, vaccination rate, and vaccine-induced immunity duration. The model parameters before vaccination are calibrated with the Philippines’ confirmed cases. Simulations show that vaccination has a significant effect in reducing future infections, with the vaccination rate being the dominant determining factor of the level of reduction. Moreover, depending on the vaccination rate and the vaccine-induced immunity duration, the system could reach a disease-free state but could not attain herd immunity. Simulations are also done to compare the effects of the various available vaccines. Results show that Pfizer-BioNTech has the most promising effect while Sinovac has the worst result relative to the others.
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hal-03636448 , version 1 (28-05-2024)

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Randy Caga-Anan, Michelle Raza, Grace Shelda G. Labrador, Ephrime Metillo, Pierre Del Castillo, et al.. Effect of Vaccination to COVID-19 Disease Progression and Herd Immunity. Computational and Mathematical Biophysics, 2021, 9 (1), pp.262--272. ⟨10.1515/cmb-2020-0127⟩. ⟨hal-03636448⟩
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