MODELLING THE DEMAND AND ACCESS OF MINERAL RESOURCES IN A CHANGING WORLD - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2021

MODELLING THE DEMAND AND ACCESS OF MINERAL RESOURCES IN A CHANGING WORLD

Olivier Vidal
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1116514
Hugo Le Boulzec
Baptiste Andrieu
François Verzier
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Humanity is using mineral resources at an unprecedented level and demand will 1 continue to grow over the next few decades before stabilizing by the end of the century, due to 2 the economic development of populated countries and the energy and digital transitions. The 3 demand for raw materials must be estimated with a bottom-up and regionalized approach, and 4 the supply capacity with approaches coupling long-term prices with energy and production costs 5 controlled by the quality of the resource and the rate of technological improvement that depends on 6 thermodynamic limits. Such modelling provides arguments in favour of two classically opposed 7 visions of the future of mineral resources: an unaffordable increase in costs and prices following the 8 depletion of high quality deposits or, on the contrary, a favourable compensation by technological 9 improvements. Both views are true, but not at the same time. After a period of energy and 10 production cost gains, we now appear to be entering a pivotal period of long-term production 11 cost increases as we approach the minimum practical energy and thermodynamic limits for many 12 metals.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
_WP__Modelling_the_demand_and_access_of_mineral_resources_in_a_changing_world (3).pdf (568.63 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Dates et versions

hal-03426225 , version 1 (12-11-2021)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-03426225 , version 1

Citer

Olivier Vidal, Hugo Le Boulzec, Baptiste Andrieu, François Verzier. MODELLING THE DEMAND AND ACCESS OF MINERAL RESOURCES IN A CHANGING WORLD. 2021. ⟨hal-03426225⟩

Collections

CNRS
131 Consultations
249 Téléchargements

Partager

Gmail Mastodon Facebook X LinkedIn More