Deterioration Modelling and Preventive Maintenance of Critical Torrential Protection Structures towards Improved Resilience – A Petri Net based Approach
Résumé
Recently, understanding system's resilience and ensuring availability have become a priority particularly for those related to critical infrastructures, which serve the humanity and the society. Protection structures that reduce the risk caused by natural hazards are part of these critical infrastructures. In mountains, check dams are largely used. Their deterioration over time influences their level of performance and can lead to dramatic consequences. On the same hand, limited budgetary resources are provided for their maintenance. In the context of natural hazards, identifying and analysing dependencies between the structure and the environment, and supporting decision-making for choosing the best maintenance strategy remain challenging. It is therefore essential to go beyond traditional methods used in safety and reliability analysis and to develop a comprehensive approach that permits incorporating possible interactions when modelling system's deterioration and provides information for prioritizing maintenance actions. The approach presented in this study couples (1) a numerical model that analyses the dynamic deterioration of check dams based on civil and hydraulic engineering expertise, and (2) a decision-aiding model, based on stochastic Petri nets, that compares the evolution of the system deterioration and the associated incurred costs when subjected to maintenance operations.
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