Quantifying the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue eLife Année : 2021

Quantifying the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness

Résumé

The relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness is poorly known. Using data from a cohort of cases and high-risk contacts, we reconstructed viral load at the time of contact and inferred the probability of infection. The effect of viral load was larger in household contacts than in non-household contacts, with a transmission probability as large as 48% when the viral load was greater than 10 10 copies per mL. The transmission probability peaked at symptom onset, with a mean probability of transmission of 29%, with large individual variations. The model also projects the effects of variants on disease transmission. Based on the current knowledge that viral load is increased by two- to eightfold with variants of concern and assuming no changes in the pattern of contacts across variants, the model predicts that larger viral load levels could lead to a relative increase in the probability of transmission of 24% to 58% in household contacts, and of 15% to 39% in non-household contacts.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
elife-69302-v1(1).pdf (1.06 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-03405884 , version 1 (27-10-2021)

Identifiants

Citer

Aurélien Marc, Marion Kerioui, Julie Bertrand, François Blanquart, Oriol Mitjà, et al.. Quantifying the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness. eLife, 2021, 10, ⟨10.7554/eLife.69302⟩. ⟨hal-03405884⟩
66 Consultations
82 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More