GNSS positioning error forecasting in the Arctic: ROTI and Precise Point Positioning error forecasting from solar wind measurements - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate Année : 2021

GNSS positioning error forecasting in the Arctic: ROTI and Precise Point Positioning error forecasting from solar wind measurements

Résumé

A model forecasting ionospheric disturbances and its impact on GNSS positioning is proposed, called HAPEE (High lAtitude disturbances Positioning Error Estimator). It allows predicting ROTI index and corresponding Precise Point Positioning (PPP) error in Arctic region (i.e. latitudes > 50°). The model is forecasting for the next hour a probability of a disturbance index or PPP error to exceed a given threshold, from solar wind conditions measured at L1 Lagrange point. Or alternatively, it is forecasting a disturbance index level that is exceeded during the next hour for a given percentage of the time. The ROTI model has been derived from NMA network measurements, considering a database covering the years 2007 up to 2019. It is demonstrated that the statistical variability of the ROTI index is mainly following a lognormal distribution. The proposed model has been tested favorably on measurements performed using measurements from stations of the NMA network that were not used for the model derivation. It is also shown that the statistics of PPP error conditioned by ROTI is following a Laplace distribution. Then a new compound model has been proposed, based on a conditional probability combining ROTI distribution conditioned by solar wind conditions and error distributions conditioned by ROTI index level.
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Origine : Publication financée par une institution

Dates et versions

hal-03320125 , version 1 (13-08-2021)

Identifiants

Citer

Vincent Fabbro, Knut Stanley Jacobsen, Yngvild Linnea Andalsvik, Sebastien Rougerie. GNSS positioning error forecasting in the Arctic: ROTI and Precise Point Positioning error forecasting from solar wind measurements. Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 2021, 11, pp.43. ⟨10.1051/swsc/2021024⟩. ⟨hal-03320125⟩

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