Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects
James Clark
(1, 2)
,
Robert Andrus
(3)
,
Mélaine Aubry-Kientz
(4)
,
Yves Bergeron
(5)
,
Michal Bogdziewicz
(6)
,
Don Bragg
(7)
,
Dale Brockway
(7)
,
Natalie Cleavitt
(8)
,
Susan Cohen
(9)
,
Benoit Courbaud
(2)
,
Robert Daley
(10)
,
Adrian Das
(11)
,
Michael Dietze
(12)
,
Timothy Fahey
(7)
,
Istem Fer
(13)
,
Jerry Franklin
(14)
,
Catherine Gehring
(15)
,
Gregory Gilbert
(16)
,
Cathryn Greenberg
(17)
,
Qinfeng Guo
(18)
,
Janneke Hillerislambers
(14)
,
Ines Ibanez
(19)
,
Jill Johnstone
(20)
,
Christopher Kilner
(1)
,
Johannes Knops
(21)
,
Walter Koenig
(22)
,
Georges Kunstler
(2)
,
Jalene Lamontagne
(23)
,
Kristin Legg
(10)
,
Jordan Luongo
(1)
,
James Lutz
(24)
,
Diana Macias
(25)
,
Eliot Mcintire
(26)
,
Yassine Messaoud
(27)
,
Christopher Moore
(28)
,
Emily Moran
(3)
,
Jonathan Myers
(29)
,
Orrin Myers
(25)
,
Chase Nunez
(30)
,
Robert Parmenter
(31)
,
Sam Pearse
(32)
,
Scott Pearson
(33)
,
Renata Poulton-Kamakura
(1)
,
Ethan Ready
(1)
,
Miranda Redmond
(34)
,
Chantal Reid
(1)
,
Kyle Rodman
(2)
,
C. Lane Scher
(1)
,
William Schlesinger
(1)
,
Amanda Schwantes
(35)
,
Erin Shanahan
(10)
,
Shubhi Sharma
(1)
,
Michael Steele
(36)
,
Nathan Stephenson
(11)
,
Samantha Sutton
(1)
,
Jennifer Swenson
(1)
,
Margaret Swift
(1)
,
Thomas Veblen
(2)
,
Amy Whipple
(15)
,
Thomas Whitham
(15)
,
Andreas Wion
(34)
,
Kai Zhu
(16)
,
Roman Zlotin
(37, 38)
1
Nicholas School of the Environment
2 UR LESSEM - Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne
3 University of Colorado [Boulder]
4 UC Merced - University of California [Merced]
5 UQAT - Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
6 UAM - Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu = Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań
7 USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station
8 Cornell University [New York]
9 Department Biostatistics University of North Carolina
10 National Park Service
11 USGS - United States Geological Survey
12 BU - Boston University [Boston]
13 FMI - Finnish Meteorological Institute
14 University of Washington [Seattle]
15 Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff]
16 UC Santa Cruz - University of California [Santa Cruz]
17 USDA - United States Department of Agriculture
18 Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center
19 University of Michigan System
20 U of S - University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon, Canada]
21 Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University [Suzhou]
22 UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley]
23 DePaul University [Chicago]
24 USU - Utah State University
25 The University of New Mexico [Albuquerque]
26 Pacific Forestry Centre
27 INRS-EMT - University of Quebec
28 Colby College
29 WUSTL - Washington University in Saint Louis
30 Max Planck Society
31 United States Department of the Interior
32 Fort Collins Science Center
33 Mars Hill University
34 CSU - Colorado State University [Fort Collins]
35 University of Toronto
36 Wilkes University
37 Department of Geography, Bloomington
38 Russian and East European Institute, Bloomington
2 UR LESSEM - Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne
3 University of Colorado [Boulder]
4 UC Merced - University of California [Merced]
5 UQAT - Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
6 UAM - Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu = Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań
7 USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station
8 Cornell University [New York]
9 Department Biostatistics University of North Carolina
10 National Park Service
11 USGS - United States Geological Survey
12 BU - Boston University [Boston]
13 FMI - Finnish Meteorological Institute
14 University of Washington [Seattle]
15 Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff]
16 UC Santa Cruz - University of California [Santa Cruz]
17 USDA - United States Department of Agriculture
18 Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center
19 University of Michigan System
20 U of S - University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon, Canada]
21 Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University [Suzhou]
22 UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley]
23 DePaul University [Chicago]
24 USU - Utah State University
25 The University of New Mexico [Albuquerque]
26 Pacific Forestry Centre
27 INRS-EMT - University of Quebec
28 Colby College
29 WUSTL - Washington University in Saint Louis
30 Max Planck Society
31 United States Department of the Interior
32 Fort Collins Science Center
33 Mars Hill University
34 CSU - Colorado State University [Fort Collins]
35 University of Toronto
36 Wilkes University
37 Department of Geography, Bloomington
38 Russian and East European Institute, Bloomington
James Clark
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 761199
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5677-9733
Yves Bergeron
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Michal Bogdziewicz
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-6777-9034
Benoit Courbaud
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- IdRef : 149724403
Adrian Das
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-3937-2616
Michael Dietze
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-2324-2518
Gregory Gilbert
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 807520
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5195-9903
Qinfeng Guo
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 802854
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4375-4916
Ines Ibanez
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 807521
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1054-0727
Jill Johnstone
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 767754
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6131-9339
Christopher Kilner
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0001-8808-8868
Johannes Knops
- Fonction : Auteur
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Georges Kunstler
- Fonction : Auteur
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- IdHAL : georges-kunstler
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- IdRef : 115302921
Jalene Lamontagne
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0001-7713-8591
Emily Moran
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 807524
- ORCID : 0000-0003-4624-1910
Jonathan Myers
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 802639
- ORCID : 0000-0002-2058-8468
Robert Parmenter
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 800146
- ORCID : 0000-0002-2099-6824
Kyle Rodman
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 807525
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9538-8412
Nathan Stephenson
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 807526
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0208-7229
Thomas Veblen
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 807527
- ORCID : 0000-0002-3037-640X
Kai Zhu
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 770629
- ORCID : 0000-0003-1587-3317
Résumé
Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.
Domaines
Biodiversité et Ecologie
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