Risk Quantization by Magnitude and Propensity - Archive ouverte HAL
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2021

Risk Quantization by Magnitude and Propensity

Olivier P. Faugeras
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 932606

Résumé

We propose a novel approach in the assessment of a random risk variable $X$ by introducing magnitude-propensity risk measures $(m_X,p_X)$. This bivariate measure intends to account for the dual aspect of risk, where the magnitudes $x$ of $X$ tell how hign are the losses incurred, whereas the probabilities $P(X=x)$ reveal how often one has to expect to suffer such losses. The basic idea is to simultaneously quantify both the severity $m_X$ and the propensity $p_X$ of the real-valued risk $X$. This is to be contrasted with traditional univariate risk measures, like VaR or Expected shortfall, which typically conflate both effects. In its simplest form, $(m_X,p_X)$ is obtained by mass transportation in Wasserstein metric of the law $P^X$ of $X$ to a two-points $\{0, m_X\}$ discrete distribution with mass $p_X$ at $m_X$. The approach can also be formulated as a constrained optimal quantization problem. This allows for an informative comparison of risks on both the magnitude and propensity scales. Several examples illustrate the proposed approach.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Magnitude_Propensity_risk revised manuscript final.pdf (812.16 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Dates et versions

hal-03233068 , version 1 (23-05-2021)
hal-03233068 , version 2 (25-11-2023)

Identifiants

Citer

Olivier P. Faugeras, Gilles Pages. Risk Quantization by Magnitude and Propensity. 2021. ⟨hal-03233068v2⟩
81 Consultations
154 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More