A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Nature Communications Année : 2021

A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback

Xuanze Zhang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Ying-Ping Wang
Peter Rayner
  • Fonction : Auteur
Kun Huang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Yiqi Luo
  • Fonction : Auteur
Shilong Piao
Zhonglei Wang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jianyang Xia
  • Fonction : Auteur
Wei Zhao
  • Fonction : Auteur
Xiaogu Zheng
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jing Tian
Yongqiang Zhang
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Abstract The climate-carbon cycle feedback is one of the most important climate-amplifying feedbacks of the Earth system, and is quantified as a function of carbon-concentration feedback parameter ( β ) and carbon-climate feedback parameter ( γ ). However, the global climate-amplifying effect from this feedback loop (determined by the gain factor, g ) has not been quantified from observations. Here we apply a Fourier analysis-based carbon cycle feedback framework to the reconstructed records from 1850 to 2017 and 1000 to 1850 to estimate β and γ . We show that the β -feedback varies by less than 10% with an average of 3.22 ± 0.32 GtC ppm −1 for 1880–2017, whereas the γ -feedback increases from −33 ± 14 GtC K −1 on a decadal scale to −122 ± 60 GtC K −1 on a centennial scale for 1000–1850. Feedback analysis further reveals that the current amplification effect from the carbon cycle feedback is small ( g is 0.01 ± 0.05), which is much lower than the estimates by the advanced Earth system models ( g is 0.09 ± 0.04 for the historical period and is 0.15 ± 0.08 for the RCP8.5 scenario), implying that the future allowable CO 2 emissions could be 9 ± 7% more. Therefore, our findings provide new insights about the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedback and about observational constraints on models for projecting future climate.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
s41467-021-22392-w.pdf (1.24 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Publication financée par une institution

Dates et versions

hal-03231668 , version 1 (26-05-2021)

Licence

Paternité

Identifiants

Citer

Xuanze Zhang, Ying-Ping Wang, Peter Rayner, Philippe Ciais, Kun Huang, et al.. A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback. Nature Communications, 2021, 12 (1), ⟨10.1038/s41467-021-22392-w⟩. ⟨hal-03231668⟩
116 Consultations
31 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More