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Article Dans Une Revue Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Année : 2010

A modelling study of photochemical regimes over Europe: robustness and variability

Résumé

The variability of the relative sensitivity of photochemical ozone formation to volatile organic compounds (VOC) and NO x emissions, the chemical regime, over Europe during summers 2001 to 2003 is simulated with a regional scale transport-chemistry model. The robustness and variability of chemical regimes is shown. A VOC sensitive regime over NorthWestern Europe and a mainly NO x sensitive regime over the Mediterranean basin and Eastern Europe are found, confirming earlier published results. The chemical regime time variability, its robustness with respect to several environmental factors (seasonality, interannual variability) and with respect to model uncertainty are thoroughly analysed. For the regions with well pronounced chemical regimes over NorthWestern Europe and the Mediterranean, the chemical regime occurrence only slightly depends on the ozone target considered-daily ozone or O x (= O 3 + NO 2) maximum or mean, AOT's, SOMO35,. .. . For these regions, differences between particular years and summer months are weak, day to day variability is significant but does not change the occurrence of one or another chemical regime. On the contrary, over NorthEastern Germany, the chemical regime changes form one day to another and is also dependent on the ozone target chosen. Expected decreases in anthropogenic NO x emissions over Europe since the last and for the next few decades have shifted and will shift chemical regimes to more NO x sensitive. The predictive skill of chemical regime indicator species is made evident at continental scale, extending their spatial range of applicability with respect to earlier studies. Several sensitivity tests were performed in order to account for major sources of model uncertainty. With the
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hal-03199886 , version 1 (18-04-2021)

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M. Beekmann, R. Vautard. A modelling study of photochemical regimes over Europe: robustness and variability. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2010, 10 (20), pp.10067-10084. ⟨10.5194/acp-10-10067-2010⟩. ⟨hal-03199886⟩
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