Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Chile - Archive ouverte HAL
Rapport (Rapport De Recherche) Année : 2021

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Chile

Antoine Brault

Résumé

The excess mortality recorded in the same period is 18557.5 deaths, which corresponds to 17.2% of the total number of deaths. Despite this significant number of deaths, which indicates that SARS-CoV-2 has strongly affected the Chilean population, currently no seroprevalence study has been published to determine the proportion of the population that has been infected by the virus. To our knowledge, there is only one study that estimates from the number of deaths, the seroprevalence between 16.29% and 22.23% on September 1, 2020 [4]. However, in that article, data are not stratified by sex and poorly by age. Here, we use the methodology developed in [4] with detailed data from DEIS until January 10, 2021 to determine the seroprevalence in regions of Chile and the infection fatality rate (IFR). In addition, we integrate hospitalization data by age and by sex at national level to improve the accuracy of our model, and measure the infection hospitalisation rate (IHR) at national level. We find that on December 31, 2020, the seroprevalence is between 13.4% and 16% in Chile, and between 20.9% and 24.5% in the Metropolitana region. IFR is estimated about 0.6% and IHR between 2.10% and 2.40%. Moreover, there are many undetected Covid-19 cases. On September 2020, only between 20.3% and 24.2% of cases have been detected. This rate falls between 12.2% and 14.2% in the Metropolitana region. These results, that will have to be confirmed by a serological study, indicate that the herd immunity which is estimated between 50% and 75% of the population immunized [2], is not reached in any of the region of Chile and that many cases remain undetected.
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Dates et versions

hal-03134952 , version 1 (08-02-2021)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-03134952 , version 1

Citer

Antoine Brault. Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Chile. [Research Report] Center for Mathematical Modeling, Universidad de Chile. 2021. ⟨hal-03134952⟩

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