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Article Dans Une Revue Climate of the Past Année : 2020

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity

Alan M. Haywood
Julia C. Tindall
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Harry J. Dowsett
Aisling M. Dolan
Kevin M. Foley
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Stephen J. Hunter
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Daniel J. Hill
Wing Le Chan
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Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Christian Stepanek
Gerrit Lohmann
Deepak Chandan
W. Richard Peltier
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Xiangyu Li
Zhongshi Zhang
Chuncheng Guo
Kerim H. Nisancioglu
Qiong Zhang
Qiang Li
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Youichi Kamae
Mark A. Chandler
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Linda E. Sohl
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Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
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Ran Feng
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Esther C. Brady
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Anna S. von Der Heydt
Michiel L.J. Baatsen
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Daniel J. Lunt
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Résumé

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ~ 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %-13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 °C over land and 2.8 ° C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60° N and 60° S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6-4.8 °C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

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Climatologie
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Dates et versions

hal-03032262 , version 1 (01-12-2020)

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Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, Kevin M. Foley, et al.. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity. Climate of the Past, 2020, 16 (6), pp.2095-2123. ⟨10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020⟩. ⟨hal-03032262⟩
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