Probabilistic and mean-field model of COVID-19 epidemics with user mobility and contact tracing - Archive ouverte HAL
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2020

Probabilistic and mean-field model of COVID-19 epidemics with user mobility and contact tracing

Résumé

We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing routing, i.e. change of residence, from commuting, i.e. daily mobility - and ii) contact tracing procedures. We confront this model to public data on daily hospitalizations, and discuss its application as well as underlying estimation procedures.

Domaines

Statistiques [math.ST]
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Luca Ganassali  : Connectez-vous pour contacter le contributeur

https://hal.science/hal-02941123

Soumis le : mercredi 16 septembre 2020-19:22:07

Dernière modification le : samedi 16 novembre 2024-12:16:02

Archivage à long terme le : vendredi 4 décembre 2020-17:15:08

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Dates et versions

hal-02941123 , version 1 (16-09-2020)

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Marianne Akian, Luca Ganassali, Stéphane Gaubert, Laurent Massoulié. Probabilistic and mean-field model of COVID-19 epidemics with user mobility and contact tracing. 2020. ⟨hal-02941123⟩

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