Minimal dynamical systems model of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data
Résumé
We derive a minimal dynamical systems model for the northern hemisphere mid-latitude jet dynamics by embedding atmospheric data, and investigate its properties (bifurcation structure, stability, local dimensions) for different atmospheric flow regimes. The derivation is a three-step process: first, we obtain a 1-D description of the mid-latitude jet-stream by computing the position of the jet at each longitude using the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Next, we use the embedding procedure to derive a map of the local jet position dynamics. Finally, we introduce the coupling and stochastic effects deriving from both atmospheric 5 turbulence and topographic disturbances to the jet. We then analyze the dynamical properties of the model in different regimes: one that gives the closest representation of the properties extracted from real data; one featuring a stronger jet (strong coupling); one featuring a weaker jet (weak coupling); and one with modified topography. Our model, notwithstanding its simplicity, provides an instructive description of the dynamical properties of the atmospheric jet.
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