Counterfactual Learning of Stochastic Policies with Continuous Actions: from Models to Offline Evaluation
Résumé
Counterfactual reasoning from logged data has become increasingly important for many applications
such as web advertising or healthcare. In this paper, we address the problem of learning stochastic
policies with continuous actions from the viewpoint of counterfactual risk minimization (CRM). While the
CRM framework is appealing and well studied for discrete actions, the continuous action case raises new
challenges about modelization, optimization, and offline model selection with real data which turns out to
be particularly challenging. Our paper contributes to these three aspects of the CRM estimation pipeline.
First, we introduce a modelling strategy based on a joint kernel embedding of contexts and actions, which
overcomes the shortcomings of previous discretization approaches. Second, we empirically show that the
optimization aspect of counterfactual learning is important, and we demonstrate the benefits of proximal
point algorithms and differentiable estimators. Finally, we propose an evaluation protocol for offline
policies in real-world logged systems, which is challenging since policies cannot be replayed on test data,
and we release a new large-scale dataset along with multiple synthetic, yet realistic, evaluation setups.
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