The ICSCREAM methodology: Identification of penalizing configurations in computer experiments using screening and metamodel -- Applications in thermal-hydraulics
Résumé
In the framework of risk assessment in nuclear accident analysis, best-estimate
computer codes, associated to a probabilistic modeling of the uncertain input variables,
are used to estimate safety margins. A first step in such uncertainty quantification
studies is often to identify the critical configurations (or penalizing, in the
sense of a prescribed safety margin) of several input parameters (called “scenario
inputs”), under the uncertainty on the other input parameters. However, the large
CPU-time cost of most of the computer codes used in nuclear engineering, as the
ones related to thermal-hydraulic accident scenario simulations, involve to develop
highly efficient strategies. This work focuses on machine learning algorithms by
the way of the metamodel-based approach (i.e., a mathematical model which is fitted
on a small-size sample of simulations). To achieve it with a very large number
of inputs, a specific and original methodology, called ICSCREAM (Identification
of penalizing Configurations using SCREening And Metamodel), is proposed. The
screening of influential inputs is based on an advanced global sensitivity analysis
tool (HSIC importance measures). A Gaussian process metamodel is then sequentially
built and used to estimate, within a Bayesian framework, the conditional
probabilities of exceeding a high-level threshold, according to the scenario inputs.
The efficiency of this methodology is illustrated on two high-dimensional (around
a hundred inputs) thermal-hydraulic industrial cases simulating an accident of primary
coolant loss in a pressurized water reactor. For both use cases, the study
focuses on the peak cladding temperature (PCT) and critical configurations are
defined by exceeding the 90%-quantile of PCT. In both cases, the ICSCREAM
methodology allows to estimate, by using only around one thousand of code simulations,
the impact of the scenario inputs and their critical areas of values.
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