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Article Dans Une Revue Bio Systems Année : 2007

Dynamical modeling of viral spread in spatially distributed populations: stochastic origins of oscillations and density dependence.

Résumé

In order to understand the spatio-temporal structure of epidemics beyond that permitted with classical SIR (susceptible-infective-recovered)-type models, a new mathematical model for the spread of a viral disease in a population of spatially distributed hosts is described. The positions of the hosts are randomly generated in a rectangular habitat. Encounters between any pair of individuals are according to a Poisson process with a mean rate that declines exponentially as the distance between them increases. The contact rate allows the mean rates to be set at a certain number of encounters per day on average. The relevant state variables for each individual at any time are given by the solution of a pair of coupled differential equations for the viral load and the quantity of general immune system effectors which reduce the viral load. The parameters describing within-host viral-immune system dynamics are generated randomly to reflect variability across a population. Transmission is assumed to depend on the vi
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Dates et versions

hal-02457600 , version 1 (28-01-2020)

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  • HAL Id : hal-02457600 , version 1

Citer

Hc Tuckwell, L Toubiana. Dynamical modeling of viral spread in spatially distributed populations: stochastic origins of oscillations and density dependence.. Bio Systems, 2007, 90, pp.546-59. ⟨hal-02457600⟩
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