Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue International Review of Law and Economics Année : 2020

Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model

Résumé

This paper investigates the effect of semi-liberty as an alternative to prison on recidivism in France. Our analysis is based on a unique dataset comprising 1,445 offenders, all eligible to semi-liberty. In the absence of an instrumental variable affecting access to semi-liberty but unrelated to recidivism, we turn to selection-on-observable methods as well as sensitivity analyses to bound the causal effect of interest. Our results under treatment exogeneity (Cox regressions) and conditional independence (entropy balancing matching) show that semi-liberty is associated with a reduction of 22% to 31% in offenders’ hazard of recidivism in the five years after release. The estimated effects decrease, but remain negative and significant when credible confounders are introduced. Overall, our analysis lends strong support for a beneficial effect of semi-liberty compared to prison.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
S0144818819302418.pdf (549.59 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Dates et versions

hal-02423761 , version 1 (21-07-2022)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Benjamin Monnery, François-Charles Wolff, Anaïs Henneguelle. Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model. International Review of Law and Economics, 2020, 61, ⟨10.1016/j.irle.2019.105884⟩. ⟨hal-02423761⟩
92 Consultations
61 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More