Rapid human-driven undermining of atoll island capacity to adjust to ocean climate-related pressures
Résumé
Most studies addressing the future of atoll islands focused on ocean-climate drivers of risk, especially
sea-level rise, and disregarded the role of local human disturbances. However, the future habitability
of these countries will critically depend on the response of inhabited and exploited islands to oceanclimate
pressures. Here, using the Maldives as a case study and based on a database including 608
islands (representing 56.8% and 86.0% of the country’s land area and population, respectively),
we assess the influence of human disturbances on island natural response capacity over the last
decade. We show that over the last decade, island change was rapid and primarily controlled by
anthropogenic drivers. the great majority of inhabited and exploited islands now exhibit an alteredto-
annihilated capacity to respond to ocean-climate pressures, which has major implications for future
research and adaptation strategies. first, future studies should consider not only climate, but also
anthropogenic tipping points (in contrast to climate tipping points). Second, adaptation strategies
must be implemented without delay, despite climate uncertainties, in order to contain any additional
detrimental path-dependency effects. This study provides critical information for better addressing the
attribution issue under climate change, and a replicable rapid assessment frame.