Objective: to develop quantitative methods for the clinical interpretation of the ballistocardiogram (BCG). Methods: a closed-loop mathematical model of the cardiovascular system is proposed to theoretically simulate the mechanisms generating the BCG signal, which is then compared with the signal acquired via accelerometry on a suspended bed. Results: simulated arterial pressure waveforms and ventricular functions are in good qualitative and quantitative agreement with those reported in the clinical literature. Simulated BCG signals exhibit the typical I, J, K, L, M and N peaks and show good qualitative and quantitative agreement with experimental measurements. Simulated BCG signals associated with reduced contractility and increased stiffness of the left ventricle exhibit different changes that are characteristic of the specific pathological condition. Conclusion: the proposed closed-loop model captures the predominant features of BCG signals and can predict pathological changes on the basis of fundamental mechanisms in cardiovascular physiology. Significance: this work provides a quantitative framework for the clinical interpretation of BCG signals and the optimization of BCG sensing devices. The present study considers an average human body and can potentially be extended to include variability among individuals.