Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Science Advances Année : 2018

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries

Sebastian Bathiany
  • Fonction : Auteur
Marten Scheffer
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C−1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
eaar5809.full.pdf (1.91 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-02195005 , version 1 (31-05-2021)

Licence

Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale

Identifiants

Citer

Sebastian Bathiany, Vasilis Dakos, Marten Scheffer, Timothy Lenton. Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries. Science Advances , 2018, 4 (5), pp.eaar5809. ⟨10.1126/sciadv.aar5809⟩. ⟨hal-02195005⟩
67 Consultations
42 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More