Hierarchical Kriging for multi-fidelity aero-servo-elastic simulators-application to extreme loading on wind turbines
Résumé
In the present work, we consider multi-fidelity surrogate modelling to fuse the output of multiple aeroservo-elastic
computer simulators of varying complexity. In many instances, predictions from multiple
simulators for the same quantity of interest on a wind turbine are available. In this type of situation, there
is strong evidence that fusing the output from multiple aero-servo-elastic simulators yields better predictive
ability and lower model uncertainty than using any single simulator. A computer simulator of a physical system
requires a high number of runs in order to establish how the model response varies due to the variations
in the input variables. Such evaluations might be expensive and time consuming. One solution consists in
substituting the computer simulator with a mathematical approximation (surrogate model) built from a limited
but well chosen set of simulations output. Hierarchical Kriging is a multi-fidelity surrogate modelling
method in which the Kriging surrogate model of the cheap (low-fidelity) simulator is used as a trend of the
Kriging surrogate model of the higher fidelity simulator. We propose a parametric approach to Hierarchical
Kriging where the best surrogate models are selected based on evaluating all possible combinations of the
available Kriging parameters candidates. The parametric Hierarchical Kriging approach is illustrated by
fusing the extreme flapwise bending moment at the blade root of a large multi-megawatt wind turbine as
a function of wind velocity, turbulence and wind shear exponent in the presence of model uncertainty and
heterogeneously noisy output. The extreme responses are obtained by two widely accepted wind turbine
specific aero-servo-elastic computer simulators, FAST and Bladed. With limited high-fidelity simulations,
Hierarchical Kriging produces more accurate predictions of validation data compared to conventional Kriging.
In addition, contrary to conventional Kriging, Hierarchical Kriging is shown to be a robust surrogate
modelling technique because it is less sensitive to the choice of the Kriging parameters and the choice of the
estimation error.
Domaines
Applications [stat.AP]Origine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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